Chris Zukowski pulled GameDiscoverCo data on every Steam game released since January 2023 with a horror tag in one of its top five slots — 7,019 titles — and tested the folk rule that horror must ship in October. It doesn’t survive. October has the most horror releases and one of the worst median revenues.

The reason the headline median looks flat is worth understanding before trusting any month-by-month comparison:

  • Over 60% of horror games in the set sit at GameDiscoverCo’s $1,000 revenue floor, so the median is pinned there in every month — the median indie game fails regardless of when it ships
  • Filter to games that earned $100,000+ and October becomes the third-worst month by median revenue, while the crowding gets worse, not better
  • June had the fewest releases and the best median revenue of any month

October’s seasonal lift is real, but it goes to back catalog rather than debuts:

  • Resident Evil’s CCU peaks cluster in March and July; October bumps line up with Capcom’s Halloween and anniversary sales
  • Signal Simulator’s peak was December 26. A streamer playing it in November 2025 moved its CCU by nothing measurable
  • Buckshot Roulette launched in April 2024 and went viral during the Steam Scream sale — the festival, not the season, was its second launch
  • Combined CCU for the top 30 horror games spikes in October only because Steam features old games like Phasmophobia and The Forest
  • New Blood Interactive shipped 16% of its catalog in October; DreadXP 13.7%. Of horror’s nine best sellers by units, two launched in October

Zukowski’s theory is that games are month-long commitments, so the Mariah Carey holiday effect doesn’t apply — players finish the obsession they already have instead of switching to match the calendar. Launch timing, he concludes, is mostly astrology; the game being exciting decides the outcome.

The practical advice is cheap either way. If you are already set on October, set your release date in Steamworks — a visible date matters more than the date itself. If you shipped horror in the past two years, discount for Halloween and join the festivals, because the season rewards the existing catalog. The optimal play he sketches is unglamorous: launch in a quiet month, do well, then deep-discount four months later into the Steam Scream cycle.